It’s been an uncommon offseason, highlighted by 4 groups buying and selling away first-round picks final month that resulted in new properties for Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill.
All of that commerce exercise means solely 16 groups have precisely one first-round decide. The different half of the league enters the draft with both two first-rounders or none. (And there are nonetheless just a few hours for a Deebo Samuel commerce to change these numbers!)
All of the offseason chaos leads us right into a draft that has formed as much as be one of many extra unpredictable in latest reminiscence. Most drafts—18 of the previous 25—have began with a quarterback, and there’s an inexpensive probability {that a} quarterback gained’t crack this 12 months’s prime 10.
Over the previous quarter century, the draft has began with a defensive participant solely 4 instances, and solely the 2000 draft started with back-to-back defensive gamers. That is the fact I’ve beneath, for the primary time since Courtney Brown and LaVarr Arrington had been the primary two gamers off the board.
With all that in thoughts, right here is my closing projection of the primary spherical. Then, after the primary 32 picks are made, I’ll publish a Day 2 (Rounds 2 and three) mock draft. You can even take a look at my closing large board, the place I ranked my prime 262 prospects.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Travon Walker, edge, Georgia
It’s definitely doable that Trent Baalke will go along with Aidan Hutchinson, a safer choice and the top-ranked prospect on my large board. Or perhaps the decide can be Ikem Ekwonu, regardless of offseason strikes already made to bolster the offensive line, together with tagging Cam Robinson. But rising sentiment is that Walker is the most probably selection, as “Baalke sees a lot of Aldon Smith in Walker.” Already an impressive run defender, Walker’s elite mixture of energy, size (35½” arms) and athleticism (4.51 40-yard dash at 272 pounds) should allow him to develop into a more productive pass rusher at the next level than he was asked to be on Georgia’s star-studded defense.
2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, edge, Michigan
No pick would make more sense than this if Hutchinson isn’t headed to Duval County. Hutchinson would stay local, and he fits what the coaching staff seeks in its players while simultaneously addressing one of the team’s biggest needs. The Lions ranked 30th in the NFL in sacks last season (30), and the former Wolverine set Michigan’s single-season sack record in 2021, with 14. He’s as safe as it gets due to his combination of leadership, athleticism, nonstop motor, polish and production.
3. Houston Texans: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Earlier offseason speculation suggested that Laremy Tunsil and the Texans could part ways, but the two sides agreed to a restructured contract, although there is a potential out after this season. Ekwonu is a mauler in the run game, but he has the nimble feet and traits for his ability as a pass protector to eventually catch up to his dominance as a run blocker. Ekwonu has the versatility to play right tackle or guard in 2022 with the long-term upside to take over at left tackle if the team parts with Tunsil in ’23.
4. New York Jets: Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon
I’m sticking with Thibodeaux here from my most recent mock, but there is some buzz that this could be Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson II (instead of Thibodeaux, if they go edge) and I’ve mocked Johnson to the Jets (albeit at 10th) much earlier in the process. That said, the former Duck has an impressive combination of speed (4.58 40-yard dash at the combine) and strength (position-high 27 bench press reps). Given his explosive first step and closing burst, Thibodeaux has the upside to develop into a double-digit sack producer early in his NFL career.
5. New York Giants: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
Left tackle Andrew Thomas played better last year than he did as a rookie, but the Giants still had one of the league’s worst offensive lines last season. In other words, there’s a good chance the Giants will use one of their two first-rounders on an offensive tackle. Conventional wisdom might suggest that the Giants would prefer Evan Neal over Cross, who has played exclusively on the left side in college. Perhaps Big Blue won’t move Thomas to the right side, however, as reports suggest the Giants “love” Cross at right tackle. Cross had 1,293 pass-blocking snaps over the past two seasons, per PFF, and the former five-star recruit uses his length (34½” arms), mild toes, steadiness and hand placement to excel in go safety.
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6. Carolina Panthers: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
It’s clear that the Panthers wish to improve their quarterback room, however the workforce doesn’t decide once more till late within the fourth spherical (137th total). Unless proprietor David Tepper forces the problem, addressing their offensive deal with want makes extra sense. Neal began at a special place—left guard and each deal with spots—in every of his three seasons at Alabama. The former five-star recruit has measurement and large energy, but additionally the motion abilities of a a lot lighter participant. As SI’s Albert Breer just lately famous, nevertheless, a “good number of clubs” take into account Neal “a notable medical risk,” and that might result in Neal being chosen third among the many consensus prime three tackles within the draft.
7. New York Giants (by way of Bears): Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Cornerback James Bradberry stays on the Giants’ roster as of this writing, however many count on the gifted nook to be moved earlier than the weekend’s over. Fortunately for the Giants, they get their selection of a possible substitute on this situation. Gardner is a lanky nook with elite size (33½” arms), toughness and confidence. He not only checked the box with a 4.41 40-yard dash, but his change of direction and agility are good for a corner with his height. “Sauce” has ended each of his three seasons in Cincinnati with three interceptions.
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY Network
8. Atlanta Falcons: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
With a number of needs, the Falcons could go in many different directions here. Calvin Ridley is suspended for the 2022 season, and Russell Gage (66/770/4) is now in Tampa Bay. Wilson is my top-ranked wide receiver prospect, has outstanding body control and is dynamic after the catch. The former Buckeye ran a (slightly) faster-than-expected 40-yard dash (4.38) in Indianapolis and posted a 70/1,058/12 line in 2021.
9. Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos): Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Stingley has had the best individual season (2019) among draft-eligible cornerbacks, and it’s even more impressive given that he did that as an 18-year-old true freshman during LSU’s title run. The past couple of seasons have been marred by injury and/or play below his ’19 level, but he has an elite combination of speed, athleticism and fluidity, and outstanding ball skills (six INTs in ’19). He’s one of the youngest players in the draft and won’t turn 21 until June.
10. New York Jets (via Seahawks): Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
A trade for Tyreek Hill was “almost a done deal,” but Williams can provide a similar element for the Jets’ offense as he put tremendous stress on opposing defenses with his game-breaking speed, when healthy. While he tore his ACL in January, he’s “ahead of schedule” with rehab. Even though he may miss time early in the season, he has a chance to emerge as the best receiver in this draft class. The speedy wideout is coming off of a breakout season (79/1,572/15) in 2021 after transferring from Ohio State to Alabama.
11. Washington Commanders: Drake London, WR, USC
While the team’s other top pass catchers battled injuries, Terry McLaurin (1,053 yards) was the only Commander to exceed 400 receiving yards last season. London uses his 6’5″ body and enormous catch radius to show contested catches into his benefit. The former basketball participant had 88 catches for 1,084 yards and 7 touchdowns in solely eight video games earlier than his season was lower quick by an ankle damage.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Jermaine Johnson II, edge, Florida State
I’ve strongly thought-about Johnson at a number of spots within the prime 10, so it wouldn’t be stunning if he’s not out there right here. After main the ACC in each TFLs (17.5) and sacks (11.5) in 2021, Johnson has continued to boost his inventory all through the predraft course of. He grew up outdoors Minneapolis, and Johnson’s athleticism, size and motor enable him to make an influence as a go rusher and in opposition to the run.
13. Houston Texans (by way of Browns): Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
If the draft performs out this manner, I’d grade this decide an A-plus. In my earlier mock that projected trades, I had the Texans buying and selling as much as ninth for Hamilton. Although he might not fall this far, I feel that is his absolute flooring. Hamilton’s not solely the finest participant out there, by far, however the Texans get a blue-chip prospect at a place of want. Despite disappointing instances on the mix and Notre Dame’s professional day, Hamilton isn’t gradual as his excellent vary reveals. Hamilton would give Lovie Smith a real distinction maker on the again finish along with his distinctive mix of peak, size, athleticism and ball manufacturing (eight profession interceptions).
14. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Davis, IDL, Georgia
There are freak athletes, then there may be Jordan Davis. Men his measurement (341 kilos) shouldn’t be capable to transfer the way in which he can (4.78 40-yard sprint). Georgia has had a loaded protection, however Davis was a giant cause why the Bulldogs have ranked top-three nationally in run protection in every of the previous three seasons. There had been 4 1,200-yard rushers in 2021—three of them (Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon and Najee Harris) play for Baltimore’s AFC North rivals.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (by way of Dolphins): Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
McDuffie has simply common measurement and lacks size (sub-30″ arms), but he’s aggressive and physical in run support and limits yards after the catch. He has outstanding short-area quickness and fluid hips, and is rarely out of position. McDuffie is at his best in zone coverage, but he’s scheme-diverse and has the versatility to play outside, in the slot and even some safety.
16. New Orleans Saints (via Eagles, via Colts): Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Since leading the NFL in receiving in 2019, Michael Thomas has played only seven games (and none last year). With his ability to separate as one of the most polished route runners in this year’s draft class and as a weapon in the vertical passing game, Olave would complement Thomas well. He finished his Ohio State career with a school record for receiving touchdowns (35) and averaged 15.4 yards per catch.
17. Los Angeles Chargers: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
The Chargers may have to move up to get in front of the Saints, but Penning would fit one of their biggest needs to bookend last year’s first-rounder, Rashawn Slater. Penning has ideal length (34¼” arms), measurement, energy, toughness and a temperament his coaches will admire.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (by way of Saints): George Karlaftis, edge, Purdue
Karlaftis lacks supreme size and bend on the prime of his rush, however he wins with energy. He has a fast first step, violent and energetic arms, and a nonstop motor with the flexibility to line up inside or outdoors.
19. New Orleans Saints (by way of Eagles): Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
Re-signing Jameis Winston to a two-year deal and bringing in Andy Dalton to again him up doesn’t rule out a quarterback right here. With good (not nice) arm energy and mobility, Pickett strikes rapidly by means of his progressions and throws effectively on the transfer. Pickett broke Deshaun Watson’s ACC file with 42 touchdowns in 2021 whereas additionally chopping down his interceptions (seven) final season.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Even although the Steelers have signed Mitchell Trubisky, it’s unlikely that they’d go on Willis if he had been out there right here. Willis is a dual-threat expertise who generates loads of zip on his throws and is a dynamic runner. Not solely did he impress throughout on-field drills on the mix and his professional day, however this viral video captures the energy of Willis’s character and why it’s simple to root for him.
21. New England Patriots: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Lloyd can influence the sport in a wide range of methods along with his capacity to cowl tight ends, get to the quarterback as a blitzer and defend the run. The Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year stuffed the stat sheet with 110 tackles, 22 TFLs, eight sacks and 4 interceptions in 2021. No coach would admire Lloyd’s versatility greater than Bill Belichick.
22. Green Bay Packers (by way of Raiders): Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
The final time Green Bay drafted a first-round broad receiver (Javon Walker, 2002), Aaron Rodgers was preparing for his freshman 12 months at Butte Community College. To be truthful, the Packers have had large success discovering gifted second-round receivers—Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings, and many others.
Burks performs quicker than his timed velocity with the acceleration to run away from defenders. Due to his physicality, run-after-catch prowess and the way the Razorbacks different his alignments, it’s simple to see how his new workforce might use Burks equally to how the 49ers have used Deebo Samuel. Burks completed 2021 with 66 receptions for 1,104 yards, 14 carries for 112 yards and a complete of 12 touchdowns.
23. Arizona Cardinals: Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Dotson creates separation along with his nuanced route operating and quickness, has excellent arms and is elusive within the open subject although he gained’t break a number of tackles. He provides worth as a punt returner and completed his closing season at Penn State with 91 catches for 1,182 yards and 12 touchdowns.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Zion Johnson, IOL, Boston College
With Connor Williams exiting in free company, the Cowboys would get an on the spot improve at left guard with Johnson. He has made double-digit begins at three completely different positions—left guard, proper deal with and left deal with—and took some reps at heart throughout Senior Bowl week. The versatile lineman is wise and polished, and performs below management with good steadiness.
25. Buffalo Bills: Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State
If I had been choosing for the Bills, this choice could be a cornerback, however I’m undecided that’s what Brandon Beane will do right here. Since he took over for Doug Whaley, who chosen Tre’Davious White within the first spherical in 2017, the Bills haven’t taken a cornerback on the primary or second day in any of Beane’s 4 drafts. Hall is an entire again who will take some strain off of Josh Allen. The former Cyclone is a affected person runner with excellent imaginative and prescient and phone steadiness, and he’s a dependable receiver out of the backfield.
26. Tennessee Titans: Kenyon Green, IOL, Texas A&M
With Rodger Saffold and David Quessenberry not on the roster, the Titans have wants on the offensive line at left guard and proper deal with. Green began at proper guard in 2019, left guard in ’20 after which made begins in any respect offensive line positions besides heart in ’21. While his added versatility is a plus, Green is ideally suited to play guard. Improved hand utilization will assist lower down on holding penalties, however the former five-star recruit has a robust decrease half, excellent size and is at his finest within the run recreation.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
Cine ran a 4.37 40-yard sprint on the mix and led all safeties within the broad leap (11’1″). He sees the sport effectively and “multiple teams” informed the Senior Bowl’s Jim Nagy that Cine “blew them away in interviews.” Cine delivers some large hits in run assist and is a dependable tackler in house with sideline-to-sideline vary.
28. Green Bay Packers: Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
Smith is a young prospect—he turned 21 earlier this month—and started the past two-plus seasons at left tackle for Tulsa. While he has the athleticism and length (34″ arms) to stay outdoors, a transfer inside till he cleans up some technical points is feasible. Smith has large energy and the bully mentality to be a dominant run blocker, presents loads of upside and will sneak into the again finish of Round 1.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (by way of 49ers, by way of Dolphins): Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
With the flexibility the Chiefs ought to covet, Hill can play deep security, nickel or doubtlessly outdoors cornerback and has large athleticism and vary. Not solely did Hill run a 4.38 40-yard sprint, however his efficiency in agility drills—three-cone (6.57) and 20-yard shuttle (4.06)—each completed second on the mix behind solely Zyon McCollum.
30. Kansas City Chiefs: David Ojabo, edge, Michigan
Ojabo is comparatively new to soccer, however he completed final season with 11 sacks—second within the Big Ten behind Hutchinson—and his pass-rush strikes are extra developed than one would count on given his restricted expertise. A torn Achilles will delay his NFL debut, however the explosive and flexible edge rusher would provide the Chiefs loads of upside as a reward for his or her endurance along with his restoration and improvement.
31. Cincinnati Bengals: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
Offensive line upgrades this offseason ought to enhance the workforce’s safety for Joe Burrow, who was sacked a complete of 70 instances in 2021 between the common season and playoffs. Despite their free-agent additions, I nonetheless thought-about Tyler Linderbaum right here, however you can argue cornerback is as large of a necessity as offensive line. Elam has an NFL pedigree as each his father (Abe) and uncle (Matt) performed security within the league. Ideally suited to play press the place he can use his measurement, energy and physicality on the line of scrimmage, Elam has excellent straight-line velocity (4.39 40-yard sprint).
32. Detroit Lions (by way of Rams): George Pickens, WR, Georgia
Pickens’s finest season got here as a highly-touted true freshman, when he hauled in 49 receptions for 727 yards and eight touchdowns in 2019. While he missed many of the previous season with a torn ACL, the lanky receiver has pure arms and wonderful physique management. The Lions signed D.J. Chark to a one-year deal, however Pickens could be a really perfect long-term complement to Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Kevin Hanson is contributing mock drafts and place rankings to The MMQB in the course of the 2022 NFL draft season. His mock drafts have been graded because the seventh-most correct (tied) over the previous 5 years, per The Huddle Report. His ’15 NFL mock draft was graded as essentially the most correct.
Read extra of SI’s Daily Cover tales right here:
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• Kayvon Thibodeaux Hears His Critics and Has a Plan
• Behind the Spectacle of Kaepernick’s Comeback Tour
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